Bayesian statistics · palaeoclimate · environmental time series

Zeki Bora Ön

I develop and apply Bayesian and stochastic methods to palaeoclimate and environmental records, with particular interests in state-space modelling, change-point detection, hierarchical models, uncertainty quantification, missing data and quantitative proxy extraction.

Associate Professor, Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering and Geological Engineering, Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University, Türkiye. My academic background combines mathematics, Earth sciences and statistical modelling.

Research themes

Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction

Probabilistic synthesis and reconstruction of climate histories while carrying observational, calibration and model uncertainty through the analysis.

Bayesian inferencehierarchical models

Change-point analysis

Estimating the timing of abrupt and gradual transitions without fixing change points in advance, from single series to hierarchical multi-record models.

MCMCabrupt events

State-space & missing-data models

Latent-state models, Bayesian variable selection and uncertainty-aware reconstruction of incomplete or irregular environmental time series.

state-spaceSSVS

Proxy extraction & time-series analysis

Independent component analysis, spectral methods and multiproxy approaches for separating environmental signals in sediment records.

ICAspectral analysisμXRF

Recent work

2026

Holocene vegetation change, climate variability, and human impacts on the Seki Basin (southwestern Türkiye): Evidence from a multiproxy approach

A multiproxy reconstruction of Holocene vegetation, climate variability and human influence in the Seki Basin of southwestern Türkiye.

2026

Bayesian stochastic imputation of discontinuous paleoenvironmental proxy records: a case study from Lake Ohrid stable isotopes

A two-stage Bayesian framework for imputing missing palaeoenvironmental proxy values while propagating uncertainty, demonstrated on Lake Ohrid stable isotopes.

2026

Fire–climate–human interactions during the Holocene: insights from sediment records in southwestern Türkiye

A long-term assessment of interactions among fire, vegetation, climate and human land use in southwestern Türkiye.

2025

A conceptual and statistical framework for delineating the timing of a stratigraphic transition: Holocene-Anthropocene boundary as a case study

A multilevel Bayesian change-point and errors-in-variables framework for estimating a stratigraphic transition from multiple records.

2025

Chronology and environmental changes from a sediment core spanning the last 485 ka from Lake Acıgöl (SW Anatolia)

A chronology and environmental interpretation for the upper part of the long Lake Acıgöl sediment record, extending across roughly the last 485 kyr.

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Profiles & contact

University profile · ORCID · Google Scholar · ResearchGate · GitHub

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