A conceptual and statistical framework for delineating the timing of a stratigraphic transition: Holocene-Anthropocene boundary as a case study

Zeki Bora Ön; Mustafa Efe Ateş; Jérôme Kaiser

doi:10.1177/03091333241310742

Research article · 2025

A conceptual and statistical framework for delineating the timing of a stratigraphic transition: Holocene-Anthropocene boundary as a case study

Zeki Bora Ön, Mustafa Efe Ateş, Jérôme Kaiser · Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 49(1–2), 63–83 (2025)

Publisher / DOI Code

What this study does

The study asks how a chronostratigraphic transition should be dated when evidence comes from multiple sites and markers with age and measurement uncertainty. It combines multilevel Bayesian change-point analysis with an errors-in-variables treatment.

Main finding

For plutonium markers, the population-level transition is centred near 1953 CE, while other markers show different regional timing and response. The result illustrates why a multi-record transition estimate need not equal a single site-specific boundary date.

When this paper may be useful

Dating stratigraphic or environmental transitions from multiple records
Hierarchical Bayesian change-point modelling
Errors-in-variables problems
Comparing transition timing across sites

Methods and keywords

Anthropocenehierarchical Bayesian modelchange pointerrors in variableschronostratigraphyradiocarbon

Suggested citation

Zeki Bora Ön, Mustafa Efe Ateş, Jérôme Kaiser (2025). A conceptual and statistical framework for delineating the timing of a stratigraphic transition: Holocene-Anthropocene boundary as a case study. Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, 49(1–2), 63–83. https://doi.org/10.1177/03091333241310742

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