A Bayesian test for the 4.2 ka BP abrupt climatic change event in southeast Europe and southwest Asia using structural time series analysis of paleoclimate data

Zeki Bora Ön; Alan M. Greaves; Sena Akçer-Ön; M. Sinan Özeren

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03010-6

Research article · 2021

A Bayesian test for the 4.2 ka BP abrupt climatic change event in southeast Europe and southwest Asia using structural time series analysis of paleoclimate data

Zeki Bora Ön, Alan M. Greaves, Sena Akçer-Ön, M. Sinan Özeren · Climatic Change 165(1–2), Article 7 (2021)

Publisher / DOI Code Full text (Google Drive)

What this study does

The study uses Bayesian structural time-series modelling to construct counterfactual trajectories for target palaeoclimate records from comparison series, then tests whether changes around 4.2 ka BP differ credibly from those expected trajectories.

Main finding

Some records support an anomaly around 4.2 ka BP while others do not, arguing against treating the event as spatially uniform across southeast Europe and southwest Asia.

When this paper may be useful

Bayesian structural time-series models
Counterfactual or causal-impact analysis
Testing hypothesised abrupt climate events
Regional comparison of palaeoclimate records

Methods and keywords

4.2 ka eventBayesian structural time seriesCausalImpactHoloceneabrupt climate changeeastern Mediterranean

Suggested citation

Zeki Bora Ön, Alan M. Greaves, Sena Akçer-Ön, M. Sinan Özeren (2021). A Bayesian test for the 4.2 ka BP abrupt climatic change event in southeast Europe and southwest Asia using structural time series analysis of paleoclimate data. Climatic Change, 165(1–2), Article 7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03010-6

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