A Bayesian change point analysis re-examines the 4.2 ka BP event in southeast Europe and southwest Asia

Zeki Bora Ön

doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108163

Research article · 2023

A Bayesian change point analysis re-examines the 4.2 ka BP event in southeast Europe and southwest Asia

Zeki Bora Ön · Quaternary Science Reviews 312, 108163 (2023)

Publisher / DOI Code Full text (Google Drive)

What this study does

Rather than assuming an abrupt change at a predetermined date, the model lets each palaeoclimate series identify whether a change point is supported and estimates its timing probabilistically.

Main finding

The analysed records do not support a spatially uniform regional event: evidence is stronger in parts of the central/eastern Mediterranean while several Anatolian and Levantine records do not display the same clear change.

When this paper may be useful

Testing proposed abrupt palaeoclimate events
Estimating change-point timing without fixing it beforehand
Comparing spatial coherence among records
Bayesian MCMC analysis of palaeoclimate time series

Methods and keywords

4.2 ka eventBayesian change pointMCMCpalaeoclimateHoloceneabrupt climate change

Suggested citation

Zeki Bora Ön (2023). A Bayesian change point analysis re-examines the 4.2 ka BP event in southeast Europe and southwest Asia. Quaternary Science Reviews, 312, 108163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108163

This page is a concise research guide. For complete methods, results and wording, use the version of record linked above.