Research article · 2023
A novel Bayesian multilevel regression approach to the reconstruction of an eastern Mediterranean temperature record for the last 10,000 years
Zeki Bora Ön, Neil Macdonald, Sena Akçer-Ön, Alan M. Greaves · The Holocene 33(7), 807–815 (2023)
What this study does
The paper combines 33 previously published proxy-based reconstructions using Bayesian multilevel regression in consecutive time intervals, allowing records to contribute to a regional estimate while retaining between-record variability.
Main finding
The framework produces a regional Holocene temperature history with explicit posterior uncertainty and demonstrates a reproducible statistical route for synthesising heterogeneous palaeoclimate reconstructions.
When this paper may be useful
- Regional synthesis of heterogeneous palaeoclimate records
- Hierarchical or multilevel Bayesian regression
- Combining site-level reconstructions with uncertainty
- Holocene temperature reconstruction
Methods and keywords
Suggested citation
Zeki Bora Ön, Neil Macdonald, Sena Akçer-Ön, Alan M. Greaves (2023). A novel Bayesian multilevel regression approach to the reconstruction of an eastern Mediterranean temperature record for the last 10,000 years. The Holocene, 33(7), 807–815. https://doi.org/10.1177/09596836231163508
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