Research article · 2023

Dates of Holocene environmental changes in Lake Bafa: A hierarchical Bayesian analysis of change points

Zeki Bora Ön · Turkish Geographical Review 82, 23–36 (2023)

What this study does

The paper combines isotope and organic-carbon proxy series in a hierarchical model so that shared environmental transitions can be estimated probabilistically from several records.

Main finding

The marine-to-isolated-lagoon transition is estimated near 2060 BP (89% interval 2250–1870 BP), and the isolated-lagoon-to-brackish-lake transition near 595 BP (89% interval 780–425 BP).

When this paper may be useful

• Multi-proxy environmental transition dating
• Hierarchical Bayesian change-point analysis
• Lake-basin evolution
• Probabilistic timing of marine-to-lacustrine transitions

Methods and keywords

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