Bayesian change-point analysis for environmental records
Change-point methods estimate where a time series changes rather than fixing the transition date in advance. Bayesian formulations express transition timing as a posterior distribution and can share information across multiple sites or proxies.
4.2 ka BP event
A fully Bayesian model tests the presence and timing of changes across regional palaeoclimate records.
Stratigraphic transitions
A multilevel errors-in-variables framework evaluates the timing of a Holocene–Anthropocene transition.
Lake Bafa
Several proxy series are combined to estimate basin transitions probabilistically.
Related concepts
Bayesian inference · MCMC · environmental time series · palaeoclimate proxy data · uncertainty quantification · reproducible quantitative analysis